US Open 2026: Four second-round matches to watch

A missed penalty at minute 88 has little to do with technique, but rather... The moment Novak Djokovic left Arthur Ashe Stadium on the opening day of the 2026 US Open was not just a shock. It was a data signal I had been waiting for months. When a legendary player is eliminated in the first round, the media often rushes to call it a "seismic upset." But looking at his fitness numbers and match density over the past 18 months, I see this as a predictable outcome. And it is precisely this early exit of the world number one that has opened up a second round full of variables, where young players and veterans are seeking golden opportunities. The context of this year's tournament is special. Heavy rain on September 1 forced 14 first-round matches to be postponed to the fourth day of play, meaning the schedule has been significantly compressed. This raises major questions about the fitness of players who must compete on consecutive days. Additionally, a wave of injuries has left many seeds without their usual rankings, creating matchups that in a normal season would only appear in the quarterfinals. The most notable match is probably the clash between Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz. Shelton showed impressive recovery after a slow start against Tallon Griekspoor. His powerful serve and aggressive baseline game have always been formidable weapons on New York's hard courts. But Hurkacz, who just returned to the top 50 after a long battle with injuries, possesses similar qualities. The Pole has a big serve and the ability to end points quickly. The key lies in fitness: if the match goes long, the advantage shifts to Shelton, because Hurkacz has yet to show he can maintain high intensity over five sets. Data from recent matches shows Hurkacz's win rate drops 15% in the fourth and fifth sets. Another marquee match is the showdown between third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov. Auger-Aliassime did not have his best performance in the first round, dropping a set to Rinky Hijikata, but 17 aces is a positive sign. The Canadian's problem lies in converting break points and second-serve effectiveness. Khachanov, with his experience of reaching the 2026 US Open semifinals, has always been a tough opponent on this surface. Though his recent form has been inconsistent, his power and finishing ability remain a constant threat. I recall their match at Wimbledon 2026, where Khachanov won in five sets thanks to better pressure management. Carlos Alcaraz is on his comeback journey after injury. His performance against Roman Safiullin showed the Spaniard still possesses sharpness, but Jaime Faria will be a tougher test. Faria just went through a grueling five-set battle with Jenson Brooksby, which shows his fitness and mentality are at a high level. However, that long first-round match could cost Faria energy in the second round. Alcaraz, despite lacking match practice, remains the heavy favorite thanks to his superior class. The question is whether he can maintain focus throughout five sets if pushed into difficulty. The most entertaining match is probably the encounter between Gael Monfils and Learner Tien. At 40, Monfils still dazzles spectators with beautiful shots and emotional celebrations. This is his final year in professional tennis, which provides special motivation. But Tien, the 14th seed, is a young and energetic opponent. His comfortable win over Nuno Borges in the first round shows the American is in great form. Tien's freshness and endurance could be the key to overcoming an experienced but not fully fit Monfils. Many believe Djokovic's early exit will diminish the tournament's quality. I disagree. From a data perspective, the absence of top players creates more balance in matches, forcing players to operate at maximum intensity from the early rounds. This not only increases competitiveness but also exposes tactical weaknesses that are often hidden in matches with large class differences. One blind spot the media often overlooks is the impact of the rain-compressed schedule. Players who must compete on consecutive days face a 30% higher injury risk than in a normal schedule. This could create surprises in the third round, where players with better fitness will have the advantage. Looking ahead, I am particularly interested in how Shelton handles the pressure of being expected to go deep. Can he maintain his composure in decisive moments? And can Alcaraz rediscover his best feeling before entering tougher matches? These questions will be answered in the coming days, and I will closely monitor every number to find the answers. Numbers don't lie. We just need to ask the right questions. And at this year's US Open, the biggest question is not who will win the title, but who can withstand the pressure of the most demanding schedule in recent years.